Why Climate Action is Vital for Global Security

The impact of climate change is a significant risk factor for conflict and instability with extreme weather events resulting in the displacement of over 20 million people annually since 2008. By 2050, it is projected that over a billion people will lack adequate water access, leading to more than 200 million forced migrations.

Water scarcity and food shortages are driving violent conflicts in regions like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Over half of the countries most vulnerable to climate change are in the midst of conflicts. Authoritarian regimes are exploiting these crises to gain influence and access raw materials. Without sufficient action to mitigate and adapt to the climate crisis, these trends will exacerbate and spread, causing catastrophic consequences.

The European Union is taking measures to avert such scenarios. Through the European Green Deal, the aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, ensure that over 42.5% of energy is sourced from renewable sources, and enhance energy efficiency by at least 11.7%. The goal is to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

A fundamental part of the strategy involves implementing a carbon price to curb carbon dioxide emissions. However, solely imposing this on EU production risks shifting carbon-intensive activities to other regions, resulting in “carbon leakage,” where jobs in the EU are lost without a global emissions reduction.

To address this, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has been introduced to ensure that the most carbon-intensive imports are subject to a carbon price equivalent to that imposed on European goods. This is not protectionism but a necessary step to ensure that the EU’s ambitious decarbonisation measures benefit the global climate.

Furthermore, efforts are being made to take responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions generated outside the EU through imported goods, by “greening” trade policy. This includes ensuring that imported products do not contribute to deforestation, a significant threat to climate and biodiversity. Although these measures have led to tensions with some partners, the EU is prepared to support their implementation and collectively address deforestation challenges.

The green transition will shape the global power dynamics, reducing reliance on fossil fuels while potentially creating new dependencies on critical raw material producers. To counter this and strengthen security, diversification of supply is essential. This involves strengthening partnerships with Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, tailored to facilitate value addition and job creation in partner countries.

While Europe bears historical responsibility for climate change, its current emissions account for only 7.5% of the global total, highlighting that domestic actions have limited impact on the world’s climate. The solution to climate change necessitates a global approach.

With multilateralism facing increasing pressure, achieving the targets set at COP21 in Paris is imperative, not only for ensuring a secure future but also to demonstrate the efficacy of multilateral institutions.

COP28 needs to accelerate global efforts. The EU is committed to promoting the phasing out of unabated fossil fuels and fossil-fuel subsidies, doubling energy-efficiency measures, and tripling global renewable-energy capacity. The cooperation of other industrialised economies and China is vital, given its substantial coal consumption despite significant progress in renewables.

The success of the green transition hinges on it being equitable and beneficial for all. The most climate-vulnerable countries, despite contributing minimally to climate change, are at the highest risk. While they need to participate in the global net-zero emissions effort, they require greater support for climate adaptation and green-energy transition. The EU is committed to providing this support and helping partners avoid repeating historical mistakes.

The EU, its member states, and European financial institutions are the largest contributors of public climate finance to developing economies, having delivered €28.5bn ($30bn) in 2022. Progress is being made in mobilising $100bn annually for climate adaptation and mitigation in the developing world, but the focus needs to shift from billions to trillions.

It is imperative to align both public and private financial flows with the Paris Climate Agreement goals and enhance the capabilities of international financial institutions and multilateral development banks to support global public goods delivery. Considerable contributions are essential for the new Loss and Damage Fund, with China playing a crucial role.

Amidst the resurgence of great-power politics in a multipolar world, international cooperation may seem daunting. However, in the face of this global existential challenge, collaboration is indispensable.

Josep Borrell, Vice President of the European Commission for a Stronger Europe in the World; Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action